Art O’Connor

Wake Up, Kick Ass, Repeat

 

Dead Cat Bounce

Blog Category: Blog — Blogged by: Art on September 18, 2008 at 9:19 pm

OK I know I said I was not going to write about the markets anymore but jumpin’ Jesus on a rubber crutch this is madness. Don’t get too comfortable with today’s rally, it wont last. I would be very surprised to see it last throught the day tomorrow. Throw a dead cat off a roof and it will bounce but it will still be dead.

You and I each shelled out $283 dollars to AIG yesterday to “bail them out”. Too late them money has already been stolen and is now in the form of yachts, Gulfstreams and mansions in thHamptons. Paluson is just taking care of his buddies at the country club. Why not, not his money. We can print more that will be worth less than the original money that is already gone.

Now we have the SEC considering banning short selling. I am sure to the simpletons out there who blame short sellers for their bad investment decisions then this is good news. Well if you are a fan of free markets it is not. If you are a responsible investor who hedges his portfolio it is not. If you are a fan of liquidity in the markets it is not. Short sellers had nothing to do with the collapse of Lehman, no one wanted to buy Lehman for any amount of money. No one, it was a toxic dead cat. Dick Fuld ran that ship into an iceberg years ago, it finally sunk. AIG could not borrow money from anyone. Why? Because they have no free assets to pledge for a bridge loan. No one would lend them money because they knew there is no chance of it being payed back. None. Short sellers didn’t cause that, blind probably paid off regulators did, greedy executives who sucked the coffers dry did. WaMu, no one will buy WaMu because there is nothing to buy, no bidders. Free market at work there. Who wants a dead cat?

America is now a socialist country, like France. Thanks Hank, now I can’t even make fun of France.

2 Comments »

Comment by Tim

September 19, 2008 @ 9:26 am

You are right on the money. We are now a country that privatizes profits and nationalizes losses. You have probably seen by now that money market funds (whose job it was to keep a stable price), are getting a bailout for investing in risky bonds. I like the dead cat bounce analogy. I picture our economy like a family who has been living way beyond its means for 7-8 years, the bills are all coming due and over the last couple of days we managed to get approved for one more credit card that will take care of the next couple of months, but will sink us even further in the long run.

Dont give up on the financial posts, its lonely living in a place where 90% believe that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”.

Comment by Dr X

September 19, 2008 @ 10:26 am

It’s kind of amazing that a stock market that was in the shitter a month ago, before the cognoscenti admitted the depth of the financial mess, now heralds the levitating cat. Everything is OK now, the Fed has stepped in.

Day traders rejoice, 5% daily market swings. Of course, politicians are saying the problem is that “average people” cannot afford their mortgages. No shit! Why didn’t I buy that $1M house in Draper when I had a chance, I’m sure I could have qualified given the lending standards. But no, I had to stay in my little POS bungalow, with it’s 10-year (not a typo) fixed-rate mortgage, no 3-car garage, no Porsche Cayenne bought on the home-equity loan. What a tool I was/am.

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